Tag Archives: Detroit Tigers

Beware the Number one draft pick

As I’ve written earlier there is a lot sport here in the UK could learn from the US. One thing I hope we never have in the UK is the draft – where clubs take their pick of the best young talent. But the young high school/college players don’t have a say in who they sign for. They can refuse to sign – pitcher Mark Appel was drafted by the Pirates in 2012 didn’t sign reappeared in the draft the next year and did sign for the Astros – but can’t go anywhere else. To my mind you should always have the right to choose your employer – but sport is always above the law so that is a pipe dream.

The other thing I don’t like about baseball’s draft is that it rewards failure. The franchises pick in reverse order of their record the previous year. So in 2015 the Diamondbacks – who had the worst record in 2014 – get first pick. I just don’t like the idea of mediocrity being rewarded. An example. The 2003 Tigers stank – they lost 119 games that year. In fact had they not won five of their last six they would have been the worst team in Major League history. Their reward? They got Justin Verlander in the 2004 draft (although as I’ll write later they might not have). In UK sport a team that bad would have been demoted from the division not rewarded with a brilliant prospect.

If I were in charge of baseball I’d copy the National Basketball Association (NBA) and have a lottery. Put the ten worst teams into a draw and decide the first ten picks that way. It means the bad teams still get early picks but there is no incentive to “tank” in order to get the No 1 pick. (I’m not saying that happens. But it could).

One difference between the baseball draft and the (American) Football and basketball ones is publicity. The MLB draft is live in the US – but only on MLB’s own network. While in the UK both the NBA and NFL drafts are on general sports channels but baseball’s not at all. This is partly because even the best talent goes to the minor leagues to learn their trade rather than straight into the majors as happens in the NFL and  NBA. Only one player in the 2014 MLB draft – pitcher Brandon Finnegan of the Royals – played in the majors before 2014 was out. In fact he played in both the College World Series and the MLB one in 2014 and he’ll be remembered for this even if he achieves nothing else in his career.

Whatever I think of the draft I bet there will be a lot of nervous young men on Monday wondering if they will get picked. It must be like waiting for your school exam results to come. And one young man will get a lot of publicity on Monday. Whoever the Diamondbacks pick will be the Number 1 draft pick and his name will get the headlines. I find it fascinating to look at No 1 draft picks for it just shows that – as in all sports – it is hard to guess which youngsters will succeed  – and which ones will fail.

Since the current MLB draft begun in 1965 the Number 1 picks have turned out to be a mixed bunch. Some are famous names – among current players Adrian Gonzalez, Alex Rodriguez Josh Hamilton  (though he never played for the Devil Rays who drafted him No 1 in 1999 and didn’t make his MLB debut until 2007 – for the Reds) Joe Mauer and David Price were no 1 picks who clearly have become stars. In the future Bryce Harper (definitely) and Stephen Strasburg (perhaps) will join them. Among all Number 1 picks none have made the Hall of Fame but with Ken Griffey Jr (drafted in 1987) and Chipper Jones (drafted in 1990)) both in my opinion first ballot certs coming up for election in 2016 and 2018 respectively that will change. But there have been some failures too.

Discounting the last three no 1 picks* three number 1 picks never played in the Majors. Steve Chillcott (1966) and Brian Taylor (1991) plus one of my two favourite draft  stories.

In 2004 for some reason I’ve forgotten (they weren’t the worse team in 2003) the Padres had first draft pick. They could (as I mentioned above) have picked Justin Verlander.  Apparently they wanted Jered Weaver – who turned into an ace for the Angels-  or Stephen Drew – a solid pro who has been part of a World Champion team – the 2013 Red Sox. But to save money – or so it is believed  – they picked local shortstop Matt Bush. A disaster both on the field – he never made it beyond Double A at either the Padres or the Rays despite reinventing himself as a pitcher when his hitting failed – and off the field – he is now inmate number C07392 in Mayo Correctional Institute after a drink driving incident(not his first brush with the law) in 2012. That pick must be one of the biggest mistakes in all sport never mind baseball**.

If that was a mistake by one franchise the 2009 draft was a case of franchises making a collective mistake. Today Mike Trout is considered the beat player in baseball. But in the 2009 draft he was only number 25 pick. Nineteen franchises missed the chance of drafting him. Two other franchises – the Nationals and Diamondbacks – missed two chances to draft him as they had compensation picks for losing free agents. Instead of Trout my team the Rangers drafted pitcher Matt Purke – who didn’t even sign and when he entered the draft again in 2011 the Nationals drafted him in the third round – suggesting the Rangers had over rated him. And we could have had Trout.

Even the Angels were lucky to get him. They had two compensation picks that year for losing free agents. They used their first on…Randal Grichuk. To be fair not a Bush style disaster. He has played in the Majors albeit for the Cardinals. It was with their second compensation pick that they drafted Trout. And this has led to the most interesting counterfactual in baseball.

The pick the Angels used to pick Trout was a compensation for the Yankees signing free agent Mark Teixeira. Now we don’t know if the Yankees would have drafted Trout but he is from New Jersey and Derek Jeter was his childhood hero. So it is at least possible that in a parallel universe Trout signs for the Yankees and is the heir to the likes of Ruth, Mantle Gehrig and Jeter among others. I wonder if they would send Teixeira back to Anaheim if the Angels gave them Trout? I suspect the Yankees would. The Angels I suspect would tell them to get lost.

The point of these stories is that spotting young talent is an inexact science. Can’t miss prospects fail. Little regarded youngsters can become stars. All sport is littered with both examples. Whoever the Diamondbacks draft number 1 on Monday we don’t know if he will be another Ken Griffey Jr…or another Matt Bush.  And that is the great thing about sport. if it was predictable we would never watch it.

*None of the last three Number 1 picks (all drafted by the Astros) have reached the Majors yet but it is clearly too early to judge. The 2012 top pick Carlos Correa will I predict be called up before 2015 is out. But in contrast Appel (picked in 2013) has a 5.20 ERA at AA level and the Astros did not even sign 2014 pick Brady Aiken partly because of health worries. And since he has now become yet another young pitcher to have Tommy John surgery  those worries seem to be justified. So far you would say the score is one out of three. Just proves how hard predicting the future is.

**Update: On Friday 13th May 2016 Matt Bush made his MLB debut for my team the Texas Rangers striking out the reigning AL MVP Josh Donaldson with 97 mph heat.Today he was the winning pitcher in a 7-6 Rangers win over the Blue Jays. Moral of the story : If at first you don’t succeed try try again…

A look at baseball’s unpredictable league

To say the American League has been unpredictable lately is an understatement. The last two seasons have seen the AL pennant go to a team that had lost 93 games the previous year (Boston) and one that had not reached the post season for 29 years (Kansas City). So what on earth could happen this year?

We’ll start with what has usually been the toughest division in baseball – the AL East. Since wild cards begun in 1995 the AL East has had two teams in the Division series in 15 out of 20 years. But last year the AL East did not even get the second wild card and a repeat is a possibility. The Red Sox have added Pablo Sandoval and Hanley Ramirez to an already strong hitting line up but have no ace after failing to resign Jon Lester. The Yankees have one pitcher who is an ace if he is fit – Masahiro Tanaka – and one who was an ace but is past his best – CC Sabathia – but this team is creaking with old age which is why it got wrecked by injuries the last two years and could be so again. It would be nice to see the Blue Jays “do a KC” and end a long post season drought (now the longest in baseball. Post season baseball has not been played in Canada since 1993) and like the Red Sox the offence is good enough – Josh Donaldson and Russell Martin are excellent additions to an offence that already had Jose Bautista and Edwin Encarnacion but ace Marcus Stroman is out for the year which leaves the Blue Jays relying on 40 year old RA Dickey and 36 year old Mark Buehrle for pitching. The Rays – starting their post Joe Maddon- Andrew Freidman era  – have the opposite problem. This franchise has never been short of pitching but hitting could be a problem – especially as Will Myers was traded in the off season.

The surprise to me in the AL East is how under rated Baltimore are. Baseball Prospectus rates their post season chances at 19.3 % – astonishingly low for a team who did win the division by 12 games last year. True they’ve lost last year’s home run leader Nelson Cruz and Nick Markasis but against that they’ll hope for full seasons from Manny Machado and Matt Wieters. They are not a team of stars – Adam Jones apart  – but they are greater than the sum of their parts and unless Boston signs an ace like Cole Hamels the Os have a good chance of upsetting the odds and defending their division title.

What I’m going to write next could either make me look like a genius or an idiot but here goes. This year could see the end of the Detroit Tigers domination of the AL Central. The team is going for a fifth successive title but stars Miguel Cabrera Victor Martinez and Justin Verlander aren’t getting any younger and already have had injuries pre season. If they miss a lot of games Detroit will be in trouble. They are still capable of making me look stupid but the pressure is on. The team is getting older and their window is closing – especially as David Price will be a free agent after 2015. This could be their last chance to crown their era with a world championship.

Especially as three of the teams in the division are improving. One is amazed that Baseball Prospectus rate the Royals’ post season chances as low as 10.3%. They are the defending AL Champions. While it is true that Billy Butler and James Shields are gone the lights out bull pen and brilliant outfield of last year are still intact. The Royals could win the division or miss out on the post season. The key might be Eric Hosmer and Mike Moustakas . Both did well in the post season but not in the regular season and will need to reproduce the post season form for KC to win the division.

The White Sox are the wild card here though. Although they lost 89 games last year they did have talent – Jose Abreu and Chris Sale come to mind – and have strengthened with Jeff Samardzia, Melky Cabrera and David Robertson. If Abreu avoids second season syndrome and Sale – a future Cy Young winner – gets fit quick (he’ll miss the start of the season) – the White Sox  – despite all the hype about the Cubs – could well be the team from Chicago playing post season baseball. And the Indians can’t be ruled out either especially if Cy Young winner Corey Kluber maintains his form (the Twins can be ruled out though). The four non Detroit teams have averaged 75.5 wins in the last four years but that will change this season. The Central will definitely send two teams to the post season and like its NL counterpart in 2013 could send three.

That of course will depend on the AL West. The Astros and my team the Rangers (since ace Yu Darvish is out for the season as he requires Tommy John surgery) can be ruled out of contention. The As have gutted their roster but also made interesting moves. They are back in the role of underdogs which they like and while I don’t think they’ll make the post season they won’t fall back into pre 2012 mediocrity either. The two favourites here are the reigning champion Angels and the much improved Mariners. The Angels won’t win 98 games again – especially as Josh Hamilton has got into off field  trouble again – but they still have Mike Trout who is well quite good. The worst they’ll do is win a wild card. But they might not defend the division though as the Mariners look like they have their best team since Ichiro’s rookie season in 2001. Last year they were one game shy of the post season despite run scoring problems. The signing of Cruz will solve that problem as well as offering Robinson Cano protection. While they won’t win 116 games as in 2001 they should at worst win a wild card and are my tip just to pip the Angels. One thing is certain. Unless disaster strikes and ace “King” Felix Hernandez is injured  the “King’s Court” at Safeco Field should see their hero pitch in the post season at last.

So I would say that the Os the White Sox and the Mariners are my favourites for the AL divisions this year. But the fact that none can be regarded as certainties sums up the “junior circuit” which looks like it could be as unpredictable this year as it has been in the previous two.

All hail Mike Hessman the Barry Bonds of the Minors

First of all a bit about myself. I’m just an ordinary guy who likes sport and has strong views about the way sport (and Britain) are run. I’ll be writing when I feel like it about whatever I feel like writing about. And who knows someone might like it.

Although I’m from Britain I’m a big fan of baseball and a couple of days ago I noticed something on ESPN’s Baseball Tonight. Namely that Mike Hessman of the Toledo Mud Hens(the Detroit Tiger’s Triple A team) had hit his 400th career Minor League home run, only the fourth man in the history of baseball to do that in American Minor League circuits. The others being Buzz Arlett, Nick Cullop and Merv Connors. So what people will say? After all you only hit 400 home runs in the Minor Leagues if you can’t hack it in the majors.That is true. In his 109 game Major League career he hit .188 (which is not good – anything below .200 is considered unacceptable for a Major League hitter – although he did have 14 home runs and 33 RBIs.) He is now 36 years old which means he is unlikely to be gracing the Majors again. Baseball Prospectus – the baseball players Who’s Who – said of him “he is what materialized when baseball scientists asked “what if it is possible to achieve higher than 80 power by giving the specimen 20s everywhere else?” (Baseball Prospectus 2014, page 178). You get the impression they don’t think he’s very good. So why should this guy be celebrated?. Simple. The fact is 98% of minor league players never reach the Majors(No girls in the Clubhouse, Marilyn Cohen, page 108). He did. Secondly to be still slogging away in the Minors at 36 suggests he truly loves his sport. He has found his true level. And that is nothing to be ashamed of. In fact he should be proud.

The fact is this guy represents most baseball players – indeed most sportspeople (and fans). The vast majority of us aren’t Miguel Cabrera Mike Trout or Justin Verlander. We are just average to poor players. We can identify with this guy. He has more in common with the rest of us than the small elite we see in televised sport. He should be celebrated. The record for home runs in the Minors is 432 held by Buzz Arlett. Hessman might pass that record before his career is done. In which case he would become “the Barry Bonds of the Minors”. And one other point. He will have done it without the aid of performance enhancing drugs.

Finally if you want to read a good blog I’d recommend Jennifer Doyle’s “The Sport Spectacle”(http://www.thesportspectacle.com). Always an interesting and provocative read. even if you don’t agree with some of it…

Update: On August 3rd 2015 Hessman hit his 433rd Minor League home run beating Arlett’s record. And it was a Grand Slam! Congratulations Mike you deserve this record. With the Tigers’ play off hopes being slim at best it would be a sentimental gesture for the them to give Mike some big League at bats at the end of the season…